British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak carried out the second cabinet reshuffle of his premiership on 13 November 2023. Amidst tensions with her on pro-Palestine marches and other prior comments, he has dismissed Suella Braverman, the Home Secretary, and invited David Cameron, a former Prime Minister (2010-2016), to become Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs. This decision came as a big surprise to many observers and prompts questions about the impact it may have on the future of the Tory leadership as the legislature draws to a close. We ask Tim Bale, Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University, and author of “The Conservative Party after Brexit: turmoil and transformation” (John Wiley and Sons, Ltd) to share his views.

Interview conducted on 15 November by Olivier Marty, President of the Cercle franco-britannique

How did Prime Minister Sunak's cabinet reshuffle earlier this week come about? Was this only about Suella Braverman's (the former Home Secretary) remarks on pro-Palestine marches ? Or was it a sign that the government is struggling and appearing weak in front of a more credible Labour opposition?

Suella Braverman had become a huge liability. True, the party might be veering away from the mainstream centre-right position it has traditionally occupied towards the kind of stances more typical of a populist radical right party. But the former Home Secretary [Suella Braverman was dismissed on 13 November, editor’s note] was taking the hardline rhetoric to new heights to the extent that it risked alienating more voters than it attracted. And she was constantly “freelancing” - saying and writing things without consulting the Prime Minister. Her remarks about homelessness being a “lifestyle choice”, which came just before her incendiary words on what she called “hate marches” [i.e. pro-Palestine marches, carried out in the weeks after the beginning of the war between Israel and Hamas, editor’s note], were just the final straw. If Prime Minister Sunak hadn’t sacked her when he did, he would have looked incredibly weak. And anyway, his wider frontbench needed refreshing, so he simply brought the reshuffle forward.

Rishi Sunak has appointed former Prime Minister David Cameron as Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, Development and the Commonwealth, which came as a great surprise to many observers. What signal is he trying to send? 

One signal Prime minister Sunak is definitely trying to send is that, to coin a cliché, “the grown-ups are back in charge” – in other words this is a government that values experience and supposed competence rather than “tub-thumping” rhetoric. That might go down well with some more traditional, and more moderate, Tory voters. 

You mentioned that the choice of David Cameron was a “desperate” move from the Prime Minister. Couldn't one argue that Cameron's rather more centrist line is a way for him to steer his electorate to the centre and make the Tories more appealing to voters?

I’m afraid I’d take issue with the idea that Cameron is some kind of “centrist” – when Prime Minister, he presided over cuts to welfare budgets, public services and local authorities that were far greater than Margaret Thatcher ever managed; and he was the Prime Minister who promised radical (and as it turned unrealistic) cuts to immigration and ramped up the Eurosceptic rhetoric, which played into Nigel Farage’s (and ultimately Vote Leave’s) hands. The only progressive achievements were saying sorry for the British Army killing unarmed Irish civilians on “Bloody Sunday” in the early 1970s [on Sunday 30 May 1972, 14 peaceful protesters were killed by the British Army in Derry, Northern Ireland, editor’s note], the introduction of equal marriage, and the commitment to spend 0.7% of GDP on foreign aid. He’s not remembered that fondly by “centrists” or, polls suggest, anyone else for that matter!

If you were the one jury assessing Sunak's report card on the key five priorities he had outlined when becoming Prime Minister, how would you judge his progress thus far? Subsequently, how do you think the cabinet reshuffle is changing the chances of the Tories for the upcoming general election (which is to take place in 2024)? 

Rishi Sunak (although in reality the independent Bank of England) has fulfilled his pledge on halving inflation, but growth (partly as a result of the high interest rates designed to achieve that) is anemic and debt is hardly falling fast.  National Health Service (NHS) waiting lists are heading in the wrong direction, and the boats aren’t being stopped. So, he scores just one out of five when it comes to his five priorities.  As for the reshuffle, history shows they rarely make any appreciable change to a government’s rating, and this one won’t either.  Elections are normally won and lost on the fundamentals – the economy, healthcare, and who’d make the best Prime Minister.  None of those are looking good for the Tories right now, and they’re running out of time to turn things around…