The UK is known as one of the leading nations on climate action. However Prime Minister Rishi Sunak spent only half a day at COP 28 last week in Dubai, leading to interrogations about the British environmental transition. Does the UK live up to its commitments on climate change? Émile asked Shane Tomlinson, E3G co-CEO. E3G is a British independent climate change think tank with a global outlook.

Interview conducted by Olivier Marty, President of Sciences Po Alumni’s Cercle franco-britannique, on Tuesday 12 December 2023

BIO

Shane Tomlinson focuses on leading E3Gs work on political economy and governance, including the development of its political economy mapping methodology (PEMM), scenarios and the response to Brexit. He currently serves on the advisory group for the All-Party Parliamentary Climate Change Group. Prior to joining E3G Shane was a Senior Research Fellow at Chatham House and also worked as a Policy Adviser in the Prime Minister’s Strategy Unit working on energy policy, sustainable consumption and production issues. He holds an MPA from Princeton University, an MSc in Economic History from the London School of Economics and a BSc in Economics and Economic History from the University of Bristol.

The COP 28 in Dubai has started two weeks ago, amid expectations by climate activists, states and some private sector organisations that new important commitments will be made. Yet British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has decided to spend only half a day at the climate summit last Friday. What is more, he seems to have disappointed with his promises to invest 10 bn GBP in new offshore wind farms and to pledge more money for poorer countries. How do you assess the UK’s contribution to the COP 28?

The UK has made important contributions to COP28. In particular, facilitating the United States to join the “Powering Past Coal Alliance” (an initiative co-Chaired by the UK and Canada) was an important breakthrough, and the impact of the UKs work on transition planning for financial markets had real resonance.

However, at a Ministerial level it was disappointing that Prime Minister Sunak did not engage more strongly in diplomatic outreach during his visit, and many of the messages in his speech seemed targeted at a UK domestic audience, not a global audience. It has been a further disappointment that Minister Graham Stuart (the Minister for Energy security and Net Zero, editors’ note) has been instructed to fly back to the UK on 12 December for a knife-edge vote on immigration issues. This has left the UK delegation without a senior Minister during the crucial endgame of the negotiations, and has shown that domestic political troubles have trumped international engagement.

The UK was the first major nation to sign its “net zero by 2050” commitment into law in 2019 which, arguably, made it an international leader in the climate transition. Yet, according to a recent independent review conducted by Conservative MP Chris Skidmore, a former Minister and Chair of the UK Net Zero Review, “the UK’s government’s progress so far leaves much to be desired”. This view is echoed by the UK’s Climate Change Committee (CCC). How do you explain this gap between past commitments and latest critical assessments?

Climate action is transitioning from a phase that was largely about target setting and establishing high level governance mechanisms, to the detailed delivery and implementation of real-world change. The UK still has world leading targets, including its current NDC [Nationally determined contribution, editor’s note] and 2050 net-zero goal, and governance under the Climate Change Act. However, this is not now being backed by the detailed policies and public investment necessary to translate this into action on the ground.

The Climate Change Committee estimates that current plans are either “insufficient” or at “significant risk” for approximately half the emissions reductions needed by 2030. The UK needs to take rapid action in the coming years to get back on track and ensure it can live up to its promises. 

According to representatives of the finance sector, like the UK Sustainable Investment and Finance Association (UKSIF), there is a lot of capital and appetite in the City to help fund new projects and technologies that could generate sustainable returns across clean industries and other “green” projects. Yet some recent policy U-turns by the British government, such as the granting of new North Sea oil and gas licenses last summer, seems to corrode the sense of climate policy certainty for businesses and investors. Do you share this view and, if so, how could such certainty be restored?

There is a danger that the current Government is seeking to break the crucial cross-party consensus that has existed in the UK on the need to tackle climate change, to try and create a “culture war” on this issue ahead of the next election. This is deeply short-sighted and goes against a weight of polling evidence which demonstrates the British public want to see action on climate change, and leading business voices including those in the City of London who want to invest in sustainable solutions.

The opposition Labour Party has a much stronger position on climate action through their five missions. So it may be that the next election, which has to happen before the end of January 2025 and could be as early as spring next year, will provide greater certainty on the UK’s level of ambition going forward.  

With the benefit of some more hindsight, how would you assess the policies enacted by the successive Conservative governments since 2010 when it comes to the energy transition and climate policy objectives? Is the Labour opposition offering any credible alternative to the loopholes identified, as it stands ready to assume power after the next general elections to be held next year?

Since 2010, the government has put in place ambitious long-term targets for climate action and the UK remains one of the best examples in the world of a country that has successfully decoupled GDP growth from climate emissions. Nevertheless, it is now failing to deliver the detailed implementation and financing necessary to follow-through on its commitments. The Labour Party’s vision is more ambitious, including a commitment to provide £28billion of green spending. However, the timing of this funding has already been watered down and it will be important to ensure that it is not weakened further as we head into the election.