What are the impacts of foreign influences on the US presidential elections?
Less than forty days before the 2020 United States elections, attempts of foreign interference in the presidential campaign are constantly increasing. Recently, Facebook and Twitter have taken down a network of accounts connected to a Russian organization already accused of interference in the 2016 US elections. How do Americans perceive foreign interference? What can the government do to counter it? Does the increased use of new technologies have an impact on foreign interference? Mario Del Pero, Professor of History at Sciences Po and specialist of the History of the United States, gives us his analysis.
By Charlotte Canizo
Foreign interference attempts could have a huge impact on the US presidential elections. (Credits: Shutterstock)
Early September, Facebook and Twitter reported that they had dismantled a new online disinformation campaign in the United States. This new operation is attributed to the “Internet Research Agency” (IRA), a Russian organization close to the Kremlin, already accused of having led a massive anti-Clinton and pro-Trump campaign in the United States in 2016. Is the specter of the 2016 Russian interference still present in 2020?
It certainly is. And for a variety of reasons, that render the American electoral cycle particularly permeable to this sort of external meddling. Elections in the U.S. are managed at the local level and are often poorly organized; the current hyper-polarized political context is particularly predisposed to facilitate actions as those of the IRA, that inflame tensions and confirm pre-existing stereotypes of the enemy; multiple studies and polls show that what drives people to vote is more opposition to the other side than support for its own, and that drives negative campaigns on which this kind of external interference inevitably prospers; social networks and new technologies render this meddling easier, cheaper and more effective. In a nutshell, for a variety of reasons the U.S. political system is today polarized and dysfunctional. These polarization and dysfunctionality open a space for external actors to meddle and sow discontent, divisions and conflicts. And in the case of Moscow, that seems to be the objective more than Trump’s victory per se: to nourish and exasperate a dysfunctionality that appears to be the major weakness of the United States today.
““The US political system is today polarized and dysfunctional.””
Other countries are also trying to interfere in the United States presidential elections. In a statement issued in August, the National Counterintelligence and Security Center (NCSC) stated that foreign countries, in particular China, Russia and Iran, try to influence the outcome of the presidential campaign. Compared to previous presidential elections, is there an increase in foreign attempts to interfere in the 2020 campaign?
As I said in addressing the previous question, the current context renders this kind of actions easier to pursue and, often, quite effective in terms of the results they produce and the ration between costs and effects. Once we would have called this propaganda or political warfare. What is striking today is how cheap and easy these operations are. In a deeply integrated and interconnected world, democratic and open society are very permeable to them, particularly where elections are messy affairs as it is often the case in the United States. So yes, there clearly is an increase in external attempts to influence the US electoral campaign and the result of the vote. Then, the objective is primarily to foment pre-existing divisions and sow discord, weakening the cohesion of the U.S. society and its body politic.
““There clearly is an increase in external attempts to influence the US electoral campaign and the result of the vote.””
Development of new technologies and the Covid-19 pandemic speed up the use of digital technology in this campaign. Is there an impact on foreign interference?
The Covid-19 and its mismanagement by the Trump administration, and the wave of protests following the killing of George Floyd by the police in Minneapolis, has further intensified the polarization of the US society and electorate in two political, cultural and electoral antagonistic camps. The division are deep, intense and almost impossible to recompose. Long story short, there currently is a low intensity political “war” in the United States that creates a very propitious condition for this foreign-generated propaganda. New technologies render these operations simple and inexpensive, as I said. You have fifty people with ten false Facebook/Twitter accounts each that work around the clock to spread disinformation and you easily reach hundreds of thousands of people. Then, I want to be clear on this: you have to have a pre-existing conducive environment in order for this propaganda to be effective and successful. And the political polarization and discord in the US has roots that predates all of this and created indeed an ideal condition for this sort of interference.
““The division are deep, intense and almost impossible to recompose.””
According to a recent survey of the Democratic Fund + UCLA Nationscape Project, four in ten Americans believe that a foreign government has already interfered with the 2020 presidential election. What does this say about the atmosphere of the United States presidential campaign? How do Americans perceive foreign interference?
It tells us two things. The first is that that 40% can easily be attributed to one side: the electors of the democratic party who believe that the 2016 election was stolen thank to this external interference. Who think that the reports of the Mueller investigation and those of Congressional inquiries prove conclusively that this interference was massive, effective, and even decisive. The second is that this belief reflects the disillusionment of many with the US democracy if not the delegitimization of politics as such. Something that Donald Trump has effectively exploited in his very unlikely political ascent.
What kind of threat do foreign influences pose to American democracy? How can the United States protect itself from them? Are the GAFAM disposed to help the government on this matter?
As I said, you can (and you certainly must) activate all the possible firewalls, reinforce your counterintelligence operations, convince social networks to be more collaborative enforcing punishing mechanisms and the like. Then, it’s the political climate – and the abovementioned, radical polarization/delegitimization – the key. And overcoming the deep fracture currently plaguing the American society is going to be immensely difficult if not impossible.
““Overcoming the deep fracture currently plaguing the American society is going to be immensely difficult if not impossible.””
Observing the current electoral campaign, the message of the two conventions, the daily deluge of vulgar and at times even violent Presidential tweets, makes very, very difficult to be optimistic.
